When it comes to sports betting, the National Football League is king. From the preseason to the Super Bowl, the NFL offers endless nail-biting action and compelling storylines that would have Hollywood writers swooning over. One of the things that makes NFL betting so appealing is the variety of options available to bettors, and below you’ll find a detailed rundown of the different types of NFL bets and strategies to consider before betting on the gridiron action.
How to Bet on the NFL
Whether you’re looking to make your first NFL bet or you’ve been betting before instant replay and two-point conversions existed, this guide will help. For beginners, there’s a detailed breakdown of the different bet types (moneyline, parlay, point spread, etc.), while for seasoned bettors, there’s a strategy section filled with betting wisdom to keep in mind throughout the season. Bookmark this page and consider revisiting it as the NFL season unfolds.
Moneyline
Moneyline betting is simply a bet on which team will win the game. Sportsbooks set the moneyline odds before kickoff, and bets on the underdog (the team less likely to win) pay more than bets on the favorite (the team expected to win). If the team you predict will win the game wins, the winning margin doesn’t matter. For example, if you bet on the Chiefs moneyline vs. the Chargers, your bet will pay out the same whether the Chiefs win by 1 or 21 points.
Spread
Point spread betting is very popular with nfl news bettors because it theoretically evens out the playing field and makes games between good and bad teams more interesting. For example, in Week 1, the Cincinnati Bengals are 9.5 points ahead of the New England Patriots. If a bettor bets on the underdog Patriots +9.5, that means the bet wins if the Patriots win the game or lose by 1-9 points. The Bengals point spread bettor wins if the Patriots lose by 10 or more points. The point spread around 3 and 7 points is worth watching, as statistically these two numbers are the most common winning margins in NFL games.
Totals (Over/Under)
A bettor who takes action on the total, or over/under, is betting that the total points scored in the game will be over or under a number set by the oddsmaker. For example, in a hypothetical game between the Raiders and Chargers, a sportsbook might set the total at 47.5. If the final score is 28-20 (48 total points), the over bettor wins, and if the final score is 23-10 (33 total points), the under bettor cashes out. A bettor who takes action on the total is not interested in who will win the game, but instead is rooting for the points (over bettor) or the defense (under bettor). Here are some key numbers to keep in mind when betting on NFL totals: 40, 41, 44, 47, 51.
football-today Our experts provide their favorite NFL moneylines, point spreads, and total picks each week.
Player and Team Props
“Prop bets” are short for “prop position bets” and involve specific scenarios within a game. For example, there are player props like “Will Brock Purdy throw over/under 265.5 yards?” or game props like “Will the game go into overtime? (Yes/No).” The Super Bowl is known for its expanded selection of player props, but there are still plenty of options for regular season games. Player props are a very fun form of betting and allow bettors to focus on individual matchups. For example, if a star WR is going to face a backup CB, a bettor might bet on the receiver’s yardage total to be over.
Futures
football tonight A “futures bet” is a type of bet where the outcome is determined in the future, rather than the next game. For example, a bet on which team will win the Super Bowl or a specific NFL division. Season odds are another example. For example, will the Chicago Bears win by over or under 8.5 points this season? Many futures bets are still available during the regular season, and the odds change weekly based on recent game results. For example, the 49ers might have a +700 odds to win the Super Bowl before the season, but if they start the season 0-4 with multiple injuries, that line might adjust to +1800 by the time Week 5 rolls around.
Awards
nfl preseason Betting on season-long awards like “MVP,” “Offensive/Defensive Rookie of the Year,” and “Coach of the Year” is a lot of fun because it allows bettors to increase their stakes throughout the season. For example, a bettor who bets that Patrick Mahomes will win the MVP will root for the Chiefs’ QB in Game 17, and may also enjoy rooting for other star QBs competing in the market. Sportsbooks assign odds on different players in award markets, and these will fluctuate throughout the season based on the player’s performance. Keep in mind that injuries can quickly derail a player’s chances of winning an award. Ask last season’s Aaron Rodgers MVP bettor.
nfl games Advanced NFL Betting Options
While the above bet types are great for beginners, the bet options below are somewhat more complex and are not recommended until the bettor has a solid grasp of the basics. Bettors who consistently lose money on simple moneyline and point spread bets should not expect to see any improvement in their results on live bets or betting parlays, as these bets are inherently more difficult.
Parlay
football schedule Parlays allow bettors to combine multiple outcomes (aka “legs”) to form a single bet with a larger payout. The problem is that if one leg of the parlay loses, the entire bet is lost. For example, a $100 3-leg parlay might include the 49ers -5.5 point spread (-110), the over (-110) of the Chargers-Raiders game, and the Panthers moneyline (+170). If all three outcomes happen, the bet wins $884.05, but if any one of the three outcomes loses, the bet is lost either way. The downside to parlays is that they are much harder to win, and the upside is that they pay out huge amounts of money.
superbowl Same-game parlays (SGPs) are essentially a combination of parlays and prop bets, allowing bettors to combine multiple outcomes within a single game. For example, a two-leg parlay where Kyler Murray throws for 260.5 yards or more and Marvin Harrison Jr. catches at least one TD pass.
super bowl Click here to see our parlay picks throughout the NFL season.
Teasers
nfl games today Teasers are similar to parlays in that they require a minimum of two legs and if either leg is lost, the bet loses. However, while teasers are generally not as profitable as parlays, what makes teasers unique is that bettors can manipulate the point spread and totals in either direction. For example, if the Lions are four points ahead of the Bears on Thanksgiving, a bettor could place a point spread of +2 on Detroit and +10 on Chicago in a six-point teaser. This depends on the team you’re after.
nfl teams Also, an NFL total of 46.5 could be converted into an over 40.5 bet or an under 52.5 bet in a 6-point teaser. The most popular teaser is the 6-point teaser, but some sportsbooks offer 6.5-point teasers, 7-point teasers, 10-point teasers, 12-point teasers, etc.
nfl draft 2024 Be sure to carefully review the house rules for each sportsbook’s teasers, as they can vary greatly from store to store.
Live Betting
nfl stats Live betting allows bettors to bet on the game after kickoff, which can create a great hedge opportunity for those who have already taken action. However, live betting has its dark side. For example, it can give bettors the opportunity to chase losses, which can lead to irresponsible betting habits. Live betting often features additional odds that are more favorable to the sportsbook than the pre-game odds, so leave this type of betting to the veteran gambler.
Contests
nfl preseason schedule Contests allow bettors to wager on a large group of bettors instead of betting on a sportsbook. For example, some contests are designed as “pick em” contests where contestants predict each week’s NFL game against the spread. There are also NFL Survivor Pool contests where contestants pick a team each week and if that team wins, they advance. Daily fantasy contests involve picking players from a roster and competing against other rosters to earn points based on each player’s performance. In all of these examples, there is a combined entry fee to create a prize pool for the top performers.
Quarter/Half Betting
nfl today If bettors notice a trend involving teams starting fast or slow, betting on the first half or first quarter line is also an option. Moneyline, point spread, and totals can be bet on quarters or halves, and every NFL game briefly offers the opportunity to bet on the 2nd quarter line during halftime. You can also bet on the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th quarter lines before the game starts, but these bets are less popular because they are harder to predict. Betting on quarters or halves can make the bet more intense because each play has a greater impact on the outcome of the bet.
NFL Betting Tips and Strategies
playoffs Here are some strategies to consider before placing your NFL bets this season. Whether you’re betting on the moneyline, teaser, or something in between, there’s some useful information here to help you make your move.
Bet Early
football games today NFL lines are updated on Sunday nights after all the action has concluded, and that’s when many professional bettors make their moves. Recreational bettors tend to bet closer to kickoff after the oddsmakers have adjusted their lines, giving them an advantage in seeing who the sharp bettors are backing. Sure, betting early in the week carries some risk (you don’t know the full injury picture), but it’s also when oddsmakers’ lines are at their weakest.
Shop the Line
Any pundit will tell you how important it is to shop for the best numbers. If you rely on one sportsbook to place all your bets, you’re stuck with that one sportsbook and you’re not always going to get the best price. During the NFL season, it is common for some sportsbooks to offer a game with a 3.5-point spread while others offer a 3-point spread. Or, two different books may offer the same bet at -118 while another offers it at -110, even though the total or point spread is the same. A $1,000 bet would pay out $909 at -110 odds, while it would only pay out $847 at -118 odds. Over time, these subtle differences can have a big impact on your bankroll. Click here to see how odds differences affect your payout.
Fading the Crowd
Betting against the crowd, or “fading the crowd,” is a betting strategy that involves researching which side the majority of the crowd is on and then betting on the opposite side.
The NFL is one of the best sports to fade the crowd because of the high volume of betting on each game, and because many of those bets are made by uninformed individuals. If the crowd consistently wins in the long run, the sportsbook will be in trouble. Instead, the crowd consistently loses in the long run, so fading the crowd is a legitimate strategy. Of course, the crowd always wins, so this strategy is not perfect and is best used in conjunction with research and consideration of other factors.
Watch Injuries
Understanding the flow of injury news throughout the week is an important part of NFL betting, as bettors have the opportunity to bet on games after injury news is announced, before oddsmakers have a chance to change their odds.
If you are using this “bet on injury news” strategy, it is important to know the pre-injury odds for the game you are betting on. For example, if the Jaguars are -4.5 against the Titans and you hear that Trevor Lawrence is unexpectedly out, don’t automatically bet on the Titans without knowing if the odds have changed. If the sportsbook has already adjusted the line to -2.5 on the news, then Titans +2.5 may not be cheap and may not be as sweet of a deal as Titans +4.5. It’s getting harder and harder to catch oddsmakers asleep at the wheel when injury news hits, but there are opportunities throughout the season if bettors set their phones to alert them and act quickly.
Ninety minutes before each game, teams are required to release their active players who will be in uniform. Two days before the game (e.g. Friday for a Sunday game), teams are required to release an injury report listing the player as “out,” “questionable,” or “doubtful.” If a player is listed as out, he or she will not play. Technically, “questionable” refers to a player who has a 25% chance of playing, but it’s much rarer. A player tagged as “questionable” theoretically has a 50/50 chance of playing. Practice reports listing “no practice,” “full,” or “limited” practice participation are also available throughout the week to help bettors read the tea leaves.
During the preseason and training camp, injury news can impact Week 1 betting and season win total betting. For example, several players have opted out of training camp so far for the season, including Samuel Williams (Dallas), Sua Opeta (Tampa Bay), Samson Ebukam (Indianapolis), John Cominsky (Detroit) and Mekhi Blackmon (Minnesota).
Consider Matchups
Instead of focusing on a team’s nfl standings win-loss record or offensive and defensive rankings, consider how the teams match up stylistically, like looking at boxing or UFC matches. For example, a QB who has decent overall numbers but struggles in man coverage might be expected to outperform a team with a high zone defense percentage. Likewise, an offense that struggles badly in the red zone and faces the league’s best red zone defense might have lower expectations. A quarterback who thrives on defensive blitzes might be happy to see a defensive coordinator like Brian Flores (Vikings) who relies heavily on the blitz.
The matchups of who calls the plays on each team’s offense and defense are also important. Some coordinators have impressive track records compared to other play-callers, and sometimes there is a huge difference in experience between play-callers that can be exploited.
Pay attention to relevant trends
Recognize trends, but don’t idolize them. Throughout the NFL season, you’ll hear about trends that seem to help predict game outcomes, but most of them are unpredictable and, frankly, useless. Part of a bettor’s job is to discern whether a trend is relevant. When a relevant trend emerges, don’t blindly bet on it, but instead view it as a useful data point.
By now, you’ve probably heard that the Colts are 1-14-1 ATS in their last 16 games. At first glance, that might seem like a reason to brush aside the Week 1 game against the Texans in Indianapolis, but stop for a moment and ask yourself if something that happened more than a decade ago is still relevant with a new QB, a new coach, and a new play-caller. If the Colts had the same coach for 16 years, I might be more interested in that trend, but it’s not a viable trend right now. However, there are some relevant trends, such as a team’s performance on the road, the primetime under, or the coach’s performance after a bye week (hehe, Andy Reid).
Buying the Hook
A “hook” is half a point in the point spread, so a 3-point spread doesn’t have a hook, but a 3.5-point spread does. Bettors have the option to buy 1/2 a point in the point spread, which can be useful for figuring out key numbers. Buying points on “uncertain numbers” (e.g. -5 to -5.5) where the game is unlikely to hit is not recommended.
Buying points is expensive (oddsmakers adjust the odds to make the bet pay less), so it shouldn’t be a regular part of your betting routine, but it’s a helpful strategy to know. The difference between a point spread of +3 and +3.5 can cause the odds to go from -110 to -135. If the oddsmaker feels that the point spread or total is too far off, they can provide a list of adjusted numbers (with adjusted odds, of course) for you to choose from in the alternative point spread or total.
A Quick Look at the Key Numbers
As mentioned above, there are key numbers to know in NFL games, as they are the most common margins of victory or total. Bettors can use these key numbers to their advantage when teasing NFL games, ensuring that the teased point spread passes through two key numbers. For example, taking the underdog from +2.5 to +8.5 would pass through both 3 and 7. Likewise, teasing a popular person from -8 to -2 also passes 3 and 7.
Click here for the weekly teaser report.
Other general teaser advice:
- Don’t tease the zero
- Teasing the point spread is more effective in low-total games
- Teasing the point spread is more effective than teasing the total
- Always compare! Your favorite sportsbooks may offer 4 different teaser prices
Beware of the Backdoor
A “backdoor cover” is when an underdog team falls behind by more than the point spread late in a game and ends up scoring a pointless point to cover the point spread. Backdoor covers are quite common because opposing defenses tend to be lax and allow passes downfield while protecting a big lead. If a bettor bets the Titans to be +10.5 against the Chiefs and the Titans fall behind by 14 points and score a touchdown on their last drive as time runs out, it is considered a backdoor cover.
Always consider backdoor cover before making a point spread bet. Teams with good receivers or a strong offense tend to do well in backdoor cover opportunities. When considering a bet on a 7-point lead, in addition to asking yourself, “Would this team be better by 7 points?” you might also ask yourself, “Can I see a scenario where they go up by 13 points in the 4th quarter and allow a backdoor cover?”
I predict the Arizona Cardinals will be a good team to backdoor cover this season because of how bad their defense is and how their offense is structured.
Futures Market Schedule Analysis
Imagine you’re drawn to the Falcons and Jets in the futures market this year. Analyzing their schedule will give you a good idea of whether to bet on the futures market now or later. For example, it’s easy to imagine a scenario where the Jets start off the schedule smoothly (@SF, @TEN, NE, DEN) and go 3-1. If the Jets start 3-1 and look good along the way, their Super Bowl odds will theoretically drop and be less profitable than their preseason odds. In other words, if you like the Jets, you might be better off betting now. On the other hand, the Falcons have their easiest game after Week 5 (@CAR, @DEN, @LV, @WSH, NYG, CAR). So if you can wait and bet after a hypothetical 1-2 start, the odds will be better.